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阅读知天下第002期

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Here we go again The Europeans are pushing the global banking system to the edge

    欧元区债务危机持续升温,不禁让人联想起2008年那场席卷世界的金融海啸。Echoes of 2008, will the fearfulness of 2011 turn into another panic like 2008?

     本周,《阅读知天下》专栏为同学们选取了《The Economist》经济学人杂志10月8号刊社论区(Leaders)文章《噩梦重现,欧洲人将全球银行体系推向边缘》。本文以类比的手法开头,将如今欧元区的恐慌比做一场恐怖电影的片头,引出了当下欧洲商业银行高层声称情况乐观,但实际上欧元区经济衰退、银行体系面临重组的强烈反差。之后,就“是否会重演2008年雷曼兄弟的悲剧”的问题,作者进行了探究,并给出了个人的回答:In any sensible world, it should not。最后作者对于目前欧元区国家决策者应对债务危机的措施做出了负面的评价,并提出了自己的意见。通观全文,当下的欧元区债务危机和2008年那场金融海啸的比较是本文的一条主线,与此同时幽默诙谐略带反讽语气的语言也是本文的一大亮点。大家可以在读文章时,多多揣摩。

 

本期详细

 

YOU know something bad is going to happen in a horror film when someone decides to take a late-night stroll in a forest. The equivalent in finance is a bank boss insisting that his institution is completely solid.

  本段翻译

 

首段暗示当公司高层在大众面前宣称他们公司业绩增长非常好时,这正是该公司濒临倒闭的信号。

【notes】1.Equivalent 本意是等价物、相等物,此处主要是指 “bank boss insists that his institution is completely solid”与前一句话中“someone decides to take a late-night stroll in a forest”可以类比(analogy),都是悲剧发生的信号。
2.Solid 固定的,稳固的,此处引申为:(公司)业绩稳定,良好。

 

 
 

European bankers have been saying things are fine for weeks now, even as their exposure to indebted euro-zone countries strangles their access to funding. The amount of money parked at the European Central Bank (ECB) has risen to 15-month highs as banks hold back from lending to each other. Fears of contagion from Europe have now infected America. Banks there led the S&P500 into official bear-market territory this week, as the index briefly dipped more than 20% below a high set in April. The chief executive of one embattled institution, Morgan Stanley, sent a memo to employees reassuring them that the bank's balance-sheet was dramatically stronger than it was in 2008, when Lehman Brothers collapsed.

  本段翻译

 

首句“欧洲的银行家们表示目前状况良好”正呼应了第一段所说,在金融界类似的情况就是当银行总裁信誓旦旦他的公司固若金汤,则是不好的情况即将来临。
【notes】1. Exposure n. 暴露,曝光,exposure to后面引导的是European bankers被曝光的内容。 2. Strangles one's access to funding, 是指遏制某人的资金来源。Strangle n. 腺疫 vi.勒死,使窒息,此处作不及物动词使用,延伸为“遏制”的含义。3. Park 本意是指泊车,此处引用为动词的储蓄。4. Contagion n.传染病,蔓延,触染,此处所指的是欧债危机所引起的恐慌。5.briefly 暂时地,一度…
7. The amount of money parked at the European Central Bank (ECB) has risen to 15-month highs as banks hold back from lending to each other. “as”在这里表原因,银行同业拆借困难导致欧洲中央银行的存款总额居高不下,这带来的后果是金融市场交易减少,投资减少,抑制了经济复苏。
【扩展阅读】
1.S&P 标准普尔500指数标准普尔500指数英文简写为S&P 500 Index,是记录美国500家上市公司的一个股票指数。这个股票指数由标准普尔公司创建并维护。标准普尔指数以1941-1943年为基数,用每种股票的价格乘以已发行的数量的总和为分子,以基期的股价乘以股票发行数量的总和为分母相除后的百分数来表示。由于该指数是根据纽约证券交易所上市股票的绝大多数普通股票的价格计算而得,能够灵活地对认购新股权、股份分红和股票分割等引起的价格变动做出调节,指数数值较精确,并且具有很好的连续性,所以往往比道•琼斯指数具有更好的代表性.
2. Morgan Stanley:摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley,NYSE:MS),财经界俗称「大摩」,是一家成立于美国纽约的国际金融服务公司,提供包括证券、资产管理、企业合并重组和信用卡等多种金融服务,目前在全球27个国家的600多个城市设有代表处,雇员总数达5万多人。2008年9月,更改公司注册地位为“银行控股公司”。
3. lending to each other银行间同业拆借,是指银行间为了调剂准备金而互相拆借资金的行为。在《货币银行学》中我们接触到,准备金是保证银行偿债能力的重要条件,所以国家对银行准备金有一个法定的最低额,就是法定准备金。当一家银行不能达到这个法定准备金的时候,就必须想办法进行周转。而向另一家准备金有赢余的银行借入资金,就是其中一种。这种业务行为就叫做银行同业拆借,同业拆借的时期较短,通常就只有一个晚上,第二天就结束。

 
 

Europe is not the only problem facing Western banks, of course. A long list of woes also includes anaemic economic growth, piles of new regulation and waves of litigation related to America's housing bust. An ill-conceived congressional bill to punish China for manipulating its currency is yet another sign that America has little to be proud of in terms of economic policy. But the central reason to worry is the euro zone: a series of defaults there would unleash devastation, sparking big losses on European banks' government-bond holdings, and in turn threatening anyone exposed to those banks.

  本段翻译

 

承接上文提到的欧债危机,本段进一步探讨了a long list of woes一连串忧虑。
【notes】1. woes 忧虑 2.Anaemic adj. 贫血的,无活力的,此处指经济增长乏力。3. litigation 诉讼 4.ill-conceived 构拙劣的,计划不全的 5.congressional bill 国会议案 6. defaults 违约,在《货币银行学》中我们接触过这个概念,此处推断是指政府债券违约。
【扩展阅读】
1. bust 破裂,此处housing bust指房贷破产,详情见:美政府就“两房”房贷损失起诉17家银行(雅虎财经)
2. 房地产泡沫:房地产泡沫可理解为房地产价格在一个连续的过程中的持续上涨,这种价格的上涨使人们产生价格会进一步上涨的预期,并不断吸引新的买者--随着价格的不断上涨与投机资本的持续增加,房地产的价格远远高于与之对应的实体价格,由此导致房地产泡沫。泡沫过度膨胀的后果是预期的逆转、高空置率和价格的暴跌,即泡沫破裂,它的本质是不可持续性。
3. 美国拟惩罚中国操纵汇率的议案,经历了提议,投票强行通过,推迟提交等闹剧,希望读者关注相关内容。
4.a series of defaults参考链接:欧洲多米诺效应,政府银行违约风险均创新高

 
 

Earlier this year, the prospect of another Lehman moment seemed remote. Thanks to the abject failure of Europe's leaders since then, the similarities with 2008 are disturbingly real. Governments are once again having to step in to support their banks. France and Belgium this week said that they would guarantee the debts of Dexia, a lender that was bailed out three years ago but which is weighed down by lots of peripheral euro-zone debt. In another throwback, plans are afoot to create a “bad bank” for Dexia's worst assets. The cost of buying insurance against bank defaults has surged: credit-default-swap spreads for Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs hit their highest levels since October 2008 this week. Rumors are rife:that banks cannot pledge collateral at central banks, that hedge funds are pulling their money from prime brokers.

  本段翻译

 

首句中提到的“Lehman moment” 与第二段末句呼应,指的是:2008年,美国第4大投资银行雷曼兄弟由于投资失利,在谈判收购失败后宣布申请破产保护,引发了全球金融海啸。“雷曼时刻”:类似于雷曼兄弟公司破产的历史事件再次重演。第二句,欧洲领导人不幸地决策失误,使得目前与2008年的情况出现了令人忧虑的相似,这正点出了文章的标题,“2008年的回音”。
【notes】1. bail out 保释,担保 2. afoot 在准备中
3. buying insurance against bank defaults 为银行的违约风险“买保险”,即为对冲银行违约风险,对冲的方式主要是后文提到的credit-default-swap(信用违约互换)。The cost of buying insurance against bank defaults 指的是后文中 spreads for credit-default-swap, 信用违约互换的价差。
4. Rumors are rife:that banks cannot pledge collateral at central banks, that hedge funds are pulling their money from prime brokers. 此处两个that都是引导rumors的同位语,正确的语序是Rumors that banks cannot pledge collateral at central banks, that hedge funds are pulling their money from prime brokers are rife. 欧债国商业银行的信用评级持续下降,引发了市场强烈的避险情绪,引来了关于“商业银行不能在中央银行质押担保品”“对冲基金正从主要经纪提出存款”的猜想。
【扩展阅读】
1. 为坏账设立坏账银行(bad bank),参考阅读:法国和比利时同意拆分德克夏银行 设"坏账银行"
2.credit-default-swap:信用违约互换,一种双方协定,卖方(保障买方于信贷违约时损失)为买方(信贷违约时受保护的一方)提供保护,以应对无担保公司或国家债务停付的情况。“受保护”的一方支付初期预定费用或持续支付来获得担保,如果一份债券或贷款违约,提供违约风险保护的卖方会提供补偿。(信用违约互换是对冲银行违约风险的一种方式)>>参考维基百科

3.对冲基金:也称避险基金或套利基金,是指由金融期货(financial futures)和金融期权(financial option)等金融衍生工具(financial derivatives)与金融组织结合后以高风险投机为手段并以盈利为目的的金融基金。它是投资基金的一种形式,属于免责市场(exempt market)产品。意为“风险对冲过的基金”,对冲基金名为基金,实际与互惠基金安全、收益、增值的投资理念有本质区别。>>参考纬基百科

PS: 请大家注意hedging fund和hedging的区别,如上文及维基百科所述,对冲基金是一种投资组合、金融工具。而在《投资学》中我们学习过hedging(对冲)的定义:Hedging is a strategy of making an investment to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in an asset. Normally, a hedge consists of taking an offsetting position in a related security. Hedging是一种策略,与speculation(投机)对立。不是所有的hedging fund都是用来对冲的,它们也可以用来投机。

4. 比利时德克夏银行:全球最大的城市银行。于1996年由卢森堡国际银行(成立于1856年)、法国公用银行(成立于1987年)及比利时信用合作银行(成立于1860年)合并而成。 >>参考纬基百科

 

 
 

Name the year

Will the fearfulness of 2011 turn into another panic like 2008? In any sensible world, it should not. Policymakers will surely not repeat the mistake they made then, of letting a big bank go under. The asset class at the heart of this phase of the financial crisis—sovereign debt—is far easier to value than the securitized subprime mortgages that caused the trouble last time. There is much greater clarity about where exposures to dodgy government bonds lie, although American banks need to become more transparent about their ties to Europe.

  本段翻译

 

作者在本段中,将现在的恐慌与2008年金融危机相比较,主要比较了两点:其一,造成现在的恐慌和2008年金融危机的核心资产,即导火索不同,现在的导火索“政府国债比起2008年的次级房贷来说,评估要容易的多。其二,比起2008年,现在承担国债风险的国家和投资者要清楚的多,更为人所知。印证了段首交待的结论:决策者不会重蹈复撤,像2008年那样的金融危机不太可能再发生。
【Notes】1.sovereign debt 外债,国债 2.subprime 次级房贷,全称为次级房屋抵押贷款,简称次贷,指银行针对信用记录较差的客户发放的房贷。
3. The asset class at the heart of this phase of the financial crisis—sovereign debt—is far easier to value than the securitized subprime mortgages that caused the trouble last time. 这里asset class=type of asset,资产种类。Value估值,估计,评估,可能涉及到信用评级、估价、风险评估等方面,看法不一。
4. There is much greater clarity about where exposures to dodgy government bonds lie, although American banks need to become more transparent about their ties to Europe. 前一句是指国债危机的影响容易被观察到,而后一句中美国商业银行和欧洲同行之间的“ties”,很可能指的是在欧洲的存款,或购买了标的物为欧洲银行债券的金融产品等。

 
 

What's more, the components of a solution to the immediate euro-zone crisis, long proposed by this newspaper, are fairly well understood. First, create a firewall around other euro-zone members like Italy and Spain that are solvent but need help financing their debts; second, recapitalize the European banking system, which has done far less since 2008 to fortify its defenses than America's; and third, allow Greece, self-evidently insolvent, to default in an orderly fashion.

  本段翻译

 

本段列举了this newspaper即<The Economists>在解决欧债危机的问题上曾提出的三种方法,并且这些方法被决策者理解并采纳。
【扩展阅读】
1.Recapitalise the European banking system:欧洲银行资产重新分配,扩展阅读
1.Greece,self-evidently insolvent 若有序重组债务,希腊违约后果可控,扩展阅读

 
 

The problem with this solution for the rest of the world is that it depends on the Europeans to carry it out. The debt crisis has been running for 18 months now, and the only way that euro-zone leaders have dazzled is through sheer incompetence. It continued this week, with some politicians admitting that a hard restructuring of Greek debt was on the table, whilst others ruled out a default. The result is the worst of all worlds: more uncertainty for banks that hold Greek debt, more pointless austerity for the battered Greek economy.

  本段翻译


 

“除欧洲外的其他经济体只能寄希望于欧元区把第六段中提到的方法来实践,这是目前最大的问题(因为欧元区领导人不称职“sheer incompetence”)。”本段开门见山,首句点出中心思想。之后举了“欧元区领导人在处理希腊债券危机时表现的不称职”这一例子,佐证了首句的观点。
本段语言诙谐,充满讽刺的语气。例如:“the only way that euro-zone leaders have dazzled is through sheer incompetence” 欧元区领导人极不称职,走得让人头晕目眩。“The result is the worst of all worlds: more uncertainty for banks that hold Greek debt, more pointless austerity for the battered Greek economy.”这种结果对所有人都极为糟糕:持有希腊国债的银行不确定性更大,更多毫无意义的紧缩政策继续打击希腊经济。
【notes】1.sheer 绝对的,纯粹的 2.incompetence 不称职,无能3. rule out 排除,取消。4.Austerity 紧缩
【扩展阅读】
希腊债务重组,扩展阅读:希腊债务面临“风险失控”债务重组已不可避免?

 
 

A clear plan for a forced bank recapitalization in the euro zone is badly needed, too. The mere rumors of it happening sparked a late market rally on October 4th. There are all sorts of reasons to deplore the fact that banks would once again be propped up by public money. It would have been far better if over the past three years more had been done to boost banks' capital and liquidity, and to create the mechanisms that would force bank losses onto creditors, not taxpayers. Every euro-zone finance minister should be forced to explain the whitewash “stress tests” that gave even Dexia a clean bill of health earlier this year. But for now the priority is to prevent a systemic meltdown, not to accelerate it for the sake of principle.

  本段翻译

 

本段揭示了决策者目前处理危机的几点不足。包括:亟需一份清晰的资产重组计划出台,存款人和纳税人的责任分开,解释年初“粉饰、掩盖”Dexia压力测试真实结果的原因。但正如末句所说:目前最重要的是防止整个银行系统崩溃,而不是追究原则问题令它加速恶化。
【Notes】 1. deplore vt. 谴责;悲悼;对…深感遗憾 2. be propped up by public money 中prop up=support of 支持,支撑 public money 这里只纳税人的钱,政府再次动用纳税人的钱来拯救银行受到了外界谴责,与后文中“force bank losses onto creditors, not taxpayers”呼应。 3. whitewash 掩饰、粉饰
【扩展阅读】
1. bank recapitalization 银行资产重组
2. ACM:欧盟巴罗佐承诺进行银行资本重组 来自:China Daily 财经频道

3. stress tests 压力测试
压力测试是为了识别那些可能提高异常利润或损失发生概率的事件或情境,度量这些事件发生时银行资本充足率状况,将整个金融机构或资产组合置于某一特定的(主观想象的)极端市场情况下,测试该金融机构或资产组合在这些关键市场变量突变的压力下的表现状况,看是否能经受得起这种市场的突变。参考:
欧洲银行“压力测试”
②新一轮欧洲银行压力测试筹备中 来自:黄金网

 
 

A fragmented, nation-by-nation approach to recapitalization will not work this time, however. France and Belgium may be able to stand behind Dexia but supporting entire banking systems is beyond the capacity of many sovereigns. The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the euro zone's bail-out fund, must carry out simultaneous injections of capital into the region's banks as soon as it can. Central banks must get into full fire-fighting mode, too. In particular, that means offers of unlimited two-year liquidity from the ECB, which was due to meet after The Economist went to press.

  本段翻译

 

虽然银行资产重组是解决危机的方法之一,但是如今通过分散的、单独国家来承担的方法达到重整银行资本的目的是行不通的。需要借助EFSF(欧洲金融稳定机构)的力量。
【Notes】1、full fire-fighting mode 指中央银行采取的救市方法,尤指欧洲中央银行需要两年内提供没有限制的流动性,Economists下期将给出原因,请读者持续关注。
【扩展阅读】
1. The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)欧洲金融稳定机构

bail-out fund 纾困基金 参考:或将EFSF与ESM合并 欧盟10万亿纾困金备用
2.EFSF杠杆化:是指设立特殊目的机构,并向该机构注入资金以发行债券并购买欧洲主权债务,这些债券将提供给欧洲央行(European Central Bank)用作抵押品。将援助基金的作用扩大很多倍。EFSF必须扩大规模,才能更大规模买入危机国的债券,但可能导致为该基金担保注资的欧元区国家债务普遍上升,从而对AAA信用评级的国家构成压力。因此,如今EFSF杠杆备受争议。

 
 

Herding Eurocrats

Above all, no amount of recapitalization would be enough to protect banks from a cascade of euro-zone defaults. Nothing matters more than putting a firewall around the likes of Italy and Spain. Here, the news is bleak. Jean-Claude Trichet, the outgoing president of the ECB, describes this as the worst crisis Europe has faced since the Second World War; but the institution he runs is unwilling to respond in kind. It is reluctant to keep buying government bonds itself, and is unimpressed by suggestions that it should boost the EFSF's firepower by lending to it. Politicians are contorting themselves to try to strengthen the EFSF without relying on the ECB.

  本段翻译



 

本段引用了欧洲中央银行行长谢里特的看法,再一次质疑了欧洲央行的决策。
【Notes】1、no amount of 即使再大(或再多)的…(也不) 2、cascade n. 层叠;小瀑布;像瀑布般冲下,这里cascade of是形容大规模的
【扩展阅读】1. the news is bleak 这里的news是指近期针对解决意大利和西班牙债务危机计划采取的方案,即想通过EFSF杠杆扩大EFSF的规模,进而购买两国债券,以保护两国,但对此问题仍存在争议,欧盟尚未达成一致意见,文章上段及本段后面都有对其指出。
2. 欧洲央行不愿购买政府国债 >>扩展阅读:《欧洲央行宣布重启购买政府债券》
3. Jean-Claude Trichet 谢里特,欧洲央行行长,>>扩展阅读

 
 

In 2008 governments were credible backstops for their banks and the Fed, the central bank at the heart of the crisis, was willing to do everything it could to create confidence. Now the sovereigns are the problem and the ECB's help is limited and conditional. That is the real horror film.

  本段翻译

 

文章最后再次将当前危机与2008年危机相比较,再次质疑了欧元区政府处理危机的态度和能力。而“That is the real horror film”呼应了首段,结构完整。
【Notes】backstop n. 挡球网;捕手;支撑物 vt. 支撑;支持 此处为支持的后盾
【扩展阅读】美联储与欧洲央行对救市态度的比较
欧洲央行:1)在希腊出现债务危机时,仍以强硬的态度计划采取加息
2)在欧元区主权债务危机导致的欧洲经济正面临越来越严峻的衰退风险的情况下,欧洲央行仍主导利率不变
3)欧洲央行自身不愿购买欧洲国债,而且对借款给EFSF不感兴趣
美联储:1)两轮政府金融救援计划,总规模达2.2万亿美元
2)非常规货币政策,包括:连续降息进入零利率时代,非常规货币政策,创新流动性管理手段,对金融机构的直接救助,向商业银行准备金支付利息,启动“国债和MBS”购买计划,以及不断扩大货币互换规模等。

 
 
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本期话题:

您如何看待欧元区政府应对债务危机的措施?

欢迎留言参与讨论:

 

 
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